Key Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today

Chris DMello • Nov 15, 2022

Every time there’s a news segment about the housing market, we hear about the affordability challenges buyers are facing today. Those headlines are focused on how much mortgage rates have climbed this year. And while it’s true rates have risen dramatically, it’s important to remember they aren’t the only factor in the affordability equation.

Here are three measures used to establish home affordability: home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Let’s look closely at each one.


1. Mortgage Rates

This is the factor most people are focused on when they talk about homebuying conditions today. So far, current rates are almost four full percentage points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. As Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have increased 3.83 percentage points since the end of last year. That’s the biggest year-to-date increase in rates in over 50 years.

That increase in mortgage rates is impacting how much it costs to finance a home purchase, creating a challenge for many buyers that’s pricing some out of the market. While the current global uncertainty makes it difficult to project where mortgage rates will go in the future, experts do say that rates will likely remain high as long as inflation does.


2. Home Prices

The second factor at play is home prices. Home prices have made headlines over the past few years because they skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now, the most recent Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller shows home values continued to decelerate for a fifth consecutive month (shown in green in the graph below):

This deceleration is happening because higher mortgage rates are moderating demand, and as a result, easing the buyer competition and bidding wars that previously drove prices up.


What’s worth noting though, is how much higher home prices still are than they were before the pandemic (shown in blue in the graph above). Even now, we have a long way to go to get to more normal levels of home price appreciation, which is historically closer to 4%. When both mortgage rates and home prices are high, affordability and your purchasing power become a greater challenge.



But while prices are still elevated in many markets, some areas are seeing slight declines. It all depends on your local market. For insight into what’s happening in your area, reach out to a trusted real estate professional.


3. Wages

The one big, positive component in the affordability equation is the increase in American wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have grown over time. This year is no exception.


As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports:


Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 120.2 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,070 in the third quarter of 2022 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported…This was 6.9 percent higher than a year earlier…”So, when you think about affordability, remember the full picture includes more than just mortgage rates. Home prices and wages need to be factored in as well. Because wages have been rising, they’re a big reason why serious buyers are still purchasing homes this year.

If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out to a trusted advisor who can explain how all of these variables work together and what’s happening in your area. As Leslie Rouda Smith, President of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:


Buying or selling a home involves a series of requirements and variables, and it’s important to have someone in your corner from start to finish to make the process as smooth as possible… and objectivity to deliver trusted expertise to consumers in every U.S. ZIP code.


To learn more, let’s connect today and make sure you have a trusted lender so you’re able to make an informed decision if you’re planning to buy or sell a home right now.

By Chris DMello 09 May, 2024
If you're thinking of buying or selling a house, it's important to know it doesn't just impact you—it helps out the local economy and your community, too. Every year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) puts out a report that breaks down the financial impact that comes from people buying and selling homes (see visual below): 
By Chris DMello 07 May, 2024
Having a hard time finding a home in your budget? ​ Builders may have a solution that can help. Builders are shifting their attention to what buyers want most right now – smaller , more affordable homes. If you want to see what’s available locally and in other areas nearby, let’s connect and explore your options together.
By Chris DMello 03 May, 2024
Thinking about selling your house ? If you are, you might be weighing factors like today’s mortgage rates and your own changing needs to figure out your next move . Here’s something else to consider. According to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Fannie Mae, the percent of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is on the rise (see graph below):
By Chris DMello 30 Apr, 2024
If you’re thinking about buying a home , chances are you’ve got mortgage rates on your mind. You’ve heard about how they impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to make sure you’re factoring that in as you plan your move . The problem is, with all the headlines in the news about rates lately, it can be a bit overwhelming to sort through. Here’s a quick rundown of what you really need to know. The Latest on Mortgage Rates Rates have been volatile – that means they’re bouncing around a bit. And, you may be wondering, why? The answer is complicated because rates are affected by so many factors. Things like what’s happening in the broader economy and the job market, the current inflation rate, decisions made by the Federal Reserve, and a whole lot more have an impact. Lately, all of those factors have come into play, and it’s caused the volatility we’ve seen. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains : “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates.” Professionals Can Help Make Sense of it All While you could drill down into each of those things to really understand how they impact mortgage rates, that would be a lot of work. And when you’re already busy planning a move, taking on that much reading and research may feel a little overwhelming. Instead of spending your time on that, lean on the pros . They coach people through market conditions all the time. They’ll focus on giving you a quick summary of any broader trends up or down, what experts say lies ahead, and how all of that impacts you. Take this chart as an example. It gives you an idea of how mortgage rates impact your monthly payment when you buy a home . Imagine being able to make a payment between $2,500 and $2,600 work for your budget (principal and interest only). The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below): 
By Chris DMello 19 Apr, 2024
Have you been saving up to buy a home this year? If so, you know there are a number of expenses involved – from your down payment to closing costs . But did you also know your tax refund can help you pay for some of these expenses? As Credit Karma explains : “If one of your goals is to stop renting and buy a home, you’ll need to save up for closing costs and a down payment on the mortgage . A tax refund can give you a start on the road to homeownership. If you’ve already started to save, your tax refund could move you down the road faster .” While how much money you may get in a tax refund is going to vary, it can be encouraging to have a general idea of what’s possible. Here’s what CNET has to say about the average increase people are seeing this year: “ The average refund size is up by 6.1%, from $2,903 for 2023's tax season through March 24, to $3,081 for this season through March 22.” Sounds great, right? Remember, your number is going to be different. But if you do get a refund, here are a few examples of how you can use it when buying a home . According to Freddie Mac : Saving for a down payment – One of the biggest barriers to homeownership is setting aside enough money for a down payment. You could reach your savings goal even faster by using your tax refund to help. Paying for closing costs – Closing costs cover some of the payments you’ll make at closing. They’re generally between 2% and 5% of the total purchase price of the home. You could direct your tax refund toward these closing costs. Lowering your mortgage rate – Your lender might give you the option to buy down your mortgage rate. If affordability is tight for you at today’s rates and home prices, this option may be worth exploring. If you qualify for this option, you could pay upfront to have a lower rate on your mortgage. The best way to get ready to buy a home is to work with a team of trusted real estate professionals who understand the process and what you’ll need to do to be ready to buy . 
By Chris DMello 16 Apr, 2024
There’s no arguing it, affordability is still tight. And if you’re trying to buy a home , that may mean you need to look at smaller houses to find one that’s still in your budget. But there is a silver lining: builders are focused on building these smaller homes right now and they’re offering incentives. And that can help give you more options that fit the bill. Newly Built Homes Are Trending Smaller During the pandemic, homebuyers wanted (and could afford) larger homes – and builders delivered. They focused on homes that were bigger, so people had more space for things like working from home, having a home gym, bonus rooms for virtual school, and more. But with the affordability challenges buyers are facing today, builders are increasingly shifting their attention to bringing smaller single-family homes to the market. The graph below uses data from the Census to show how this trend has evolved over the last few years: 
By Chris DMello 12 Apr, 2024
When mortgage rates spiked up over the last few years, some homeowners put their plans to move on pause. Maybe you did too because you didn’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate for your next home. But is that still the right strategy for you? In today’s market , data shows more homeowners are getting used to where rates are and thinking it may be time to move . As Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, explains : “Listings are up a bit as life events and job changes are putting increasing pressure on locked-in homeowners to sell their homes. Homeowners may also be slowly coming to the realization that mortgage rates aren’t going back anywhere near the rate on their existing mortgage. ”  A recent study from Bank of America sheds light on some of the things homeowners say would make them sell , even with rates where they are right now (see visual below):
By Chris DMello 10 Apr, 2024
You may have heard headlines in the news lately about agents in the real estate industry and discussions about their commissions. And if you’re following along, it can be pretty confusing. But here’s the thing you really need to know – expert advice from a trusted real estate agent is priceless, now more than ever. And here’s why. A real estate agent does a lot more than you may realize. Your agent is the person who will guide you through every step when buying a home and look out for your best interests along the way. They smooth out a complex process and take away the bulk of the stress of what’s likely your largest purchase ever. And that’s exactly what you want and deserve. This is at least a part of the reason why a recent survey from Bright MLS found an overwhelming majority of people agree an agent is a key part of the homebuying process (see visual below):
By Chris DMello 19 Mar, 2024
Mortgage rates up 0.25%-0.5% this week as inflation (both CPI and PPI) refuses to come down pushing back the Fed’s rate cuts to probably 2-3 from 7 at the start of the year. Today’s Mortgage Rates - Our Conventional 30 yr is now at 6.625%, $1K Lender fee, NO POINTS, 6.65% APR 600K purchase price, 20% down, 780+ credit, primary residence, SFH, 30 day lock. Mortgage approval in 5 business days! Rates as of 03/14/2024 Get Today’s mortgage rate at https://www.bestlocalmortgagereviews.com/ and see how much your clients can save with a lower rate that helps get them into their dream home. Here's this week's quick look at the markets! ‌ 
By Chris DMello 11 Mar, 2024
Today’s Mortgage Rates - Our Conventional 30 yr is now at 6.375%, $1K Lender fee, NO POINTS, 6.4% APR 600K purchase price, 20% down, 780+ credit, primary residence, SFH, 30 day lock. Mortgage approval in 5 business days! Rates as of 03/07/2024 Get Today’s mortgage rate at https://www.bestlocalmortgagereviews.com/ and see how much your clients can save with a lower rate that helps get them into their dream home.  Here's this week's quick look at the markets! ‌
More Posts
Share by: